Natural Flood Management (NFM) strategies represent a paradigm shift in flood risk mitigation, emphasising the rehabilitation and enhancement of natural hydrological and morphological processes across catchments - to deliver slower and lower floods – and reduce flood risk.
Interest in NFM has grown rapidly, particularly in regions facing increasingly intense and destructive flooding under climate change, such as eastern NSW (including the mid‑north coast and Northern Rivers), and south‑east Queensland since 2021. As a nature‑based solution, NFM works with natural processes and provides environmental co‑benefits, including healthier river ecosystems, improved water quality, enhanced habitat and biodiversity, and increased climate resilience.
Despite the expanding number of NFM projects, clear proof‑of‑concept remains limited in NSW and Australia. Many researchers and practitioners agree that robust monitoring is essential for building the evidence base required to mainstream NFM as a reliable flood mitigation approach. Detecting NFM signals in hydrological records across a full range of flood magnitudes from minor, to moderate and major, is critical.
This paper uses the full capacity of available gauge records to detect NFM signals in eastern NSW catchments. We apply both upstream‑to‑downstream and at‑a‑station metrics. Upstream-to-downstream metrics includes peak‑to‑peak travel time, flood‑wave celerity and peak attenuation. At‑a‑station analysis examines temporal changes in hydrograph shape using kurtosis, rate of rise and skewness.
Detecting these signals helps identify where in the landscape NFM is already occurring, emerging, not yet evident, or just not feasible. With this understanding, practitioners can strategically enhance existing mitigation, initiate new rehabilitation, or redirect efforts.